Development of Commodity-driven Vessel Movements for Economic Analysis of Port Improvements

Coastal ports operate through the interactions of shippers, carriers, dock owners, operators, pilots and the various governmental agencies responsible for maintaining and operating channels for safe and efficient movements. Monte Carlo simulation models of vessel movements in ports can be useful in determining the value of improvements such as channel widening or dredging. Such models require, among other things, input that describes the random arrival of vessels at the port. A method of generating synthetic fleet forecasts for Monte Carlo simulation models, consistent with historical and expected future fleets and commodity forecasts has been developed as part of a suite of navigation planning tools developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The suite includes: the HarborSym Monte Carlo simulation model; the HSAM visualization/animation tool; a database structure for storing historical and synthetic vessel calls at a port; a set of statistical analysis tools that operate on data describing historic vessel port calls; and a commodity-driven forecast tool and synthetic fleet generator. The elements of the tool suite are described, with emphasis on the VCDB and the commodity-driven forecast tool. The tool suite development is a component of a major Corps research and development initiative on Navigation Economics Technologies (NETS) that is developing state-ofthe-art research and tools for analysis of inland waterways and deep draft navigation.